Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.78 – 79.63

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.6 ±13.9

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 45.73Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 8.32Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 32.73Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.7 ±16.2

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 67.61Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11246Tiger Byte

Provisional

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 34.93Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -22.91Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2977, 3206, 2358

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 3206, 2358

Auto

12.1 14%

Teleop

44.7 52%

Endgame

28.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2530, 11246, 5576

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2530, 11246, 5576

Auto

6.5 8%

Teleop

39.0 51%

Endgame

31.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.8pts

Blue projected score79.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.2
Score range: 53–114
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 149.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.6Season APEX275.7

12.1Auto6.5

44.7Teleop39

28.8Endgame31.7

24Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	20
teleop	22	77
endgame	22	6
foul	0	0
total	46	103

Result

Final score

46 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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