Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.3 – 184.38

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.1 ±13.5

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 19.23Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 105.1Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -0.03Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.8 ±14.1

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 127.15Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 25.78Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 31.45Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2290, 4174, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2290, 4174, 2531

Auto

23.5 17%

Teleop

65.6 49%

Endgame

45.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4143, 4859, 7531

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 4859, 7531

Auto

26.5 15%

Teleop

107.0 59%

Endgame

48.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.3pts

Blue projected score184.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.1
Score range: 97–211
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.1Season APEX437.8

23.5Auto26.5

65.6Teleop107

45.7Endgame48.3

165Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	45
teleop	102	109
endgame	51	67
foul	0	0
total	188	221

Result

Final score

188 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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