Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.7 – 64.92

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±17.5

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 15.5Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 11.09Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 23.11Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.3 ±13.5

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 30.67Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 17.34Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 16.91Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5339, 6420, 3055

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5339, 6420, 3055

Auto

18.3 34%

Teleop

26.3 50%

Endgame

8.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2508, 3284, 5541

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2508, 3284, 5541

Auto

26.8 55%

Teleop

0.4 1%

Endgame

21.1 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.7pts

Blue projected score64.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.2
Score range: 23–92
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 46 vs event baseline 152.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.3Season APEX357.3

18.3Auto26.8

26.3Teleop0.4

8.5Endgame21.1

79Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	8
teleop	4	12
endgame	5	10
foul	0	0
total	16	30

Result

Final score

16 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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