Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43 – 211.88

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.3 ±15

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -22.61Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 24.07Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 41.54Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.3 ±12.8

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 54.75Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 142.72Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 14.41Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5576, 2667, 2977

/ 100 compat

Projected

43 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5576, 2667, 2977

Auto

1.4 3%

Teleop

0.2 0%

Endgame

39.5 96%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4663, 4646, 3206

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4663, 4646, 3206

Auto

35.1 16%

Teleop

122.5 58%

Endgame

55.2 26%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43pts

Blue projected score211.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -168.9
Score range: 15–240
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 153.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.3Season APEX455.3

1.4Auto35.1

0.2Teleop122.5

39.5Endgame55.2

120Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	40
teleop	28	140
endgame	7	20
foul	0	0
total	43	200

Result

Final score

43 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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