Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.17 – 285.08

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±16.5

11246Tiger Byte

Provisional

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 38.12Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 103.5Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 49.55Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.5 ±9.8

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 131.42Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 50.85Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 102.81Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11246, 6419, 967

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11246, 6419, 967

Auto

30.0 17%

Teleop

116.3 65%

Endgame

33.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3928, 2220, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 2220, 695

Auto

50.6 18%

Teleop

164.3 59%

Endgame

63.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.2pts

Blue projected score285.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.9
Score range: 164–312
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.2Season APEX696.5

30Auto50.6

116.3Teleop164.3

33.2Endgame63.9

11Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	59
teleop	50	147
endgame	47	60
foul	10	5
total	134	271

Result

Final score

134 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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