Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.09 – 122.49

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.2 ±11.6

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 21.56Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 39.43Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 54.1Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212 ±17

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 36.54Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 34.97Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 50.98Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 167, 9082, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 167, 9082, 2530

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

55.0 49%

Endgame

42.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5822, 7531, 3090

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5822, 7531, 3090

Auto

23.3 19%

Teleop

79.9 66%

Endgame

18.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.1pts

Blue projected score122.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 88–149
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 152.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.2Season APEX212

13.3Auto23.3

55Teleop79.9

42.9Endgame18.4

155Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	106	50
endgame	40	27
foul	0	5
total	160	106

Result

Final score

160 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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