Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.78 – 109.17

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.3 ±12.8

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 51.19Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 6.24Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 95.35Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.3 ±11.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 88.91Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 17.68Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 2.58Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2987, 2358, 5847

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 2358, 5847

Auto

40.6 29%

Teleop

66.4 47%

Endgame

33.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4065, 112, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 112, 2290

Auto

12.5 15%

Teleop

37.2 46%

Endgame

32.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.8pts

Blue projected score109.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.6
Score range: 82–180
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.3Season APEX432.3

40.6Auto12.5

66.4Teleop37.2

33.2Endgame32

51Consistency190

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	28
teleop	112	100
endgame	84	47
foul	0	0
total	247	175

Result

Final score

247 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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