Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.23 – 60.97

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.7 ±13

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 43.04Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 23.83Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 125.36Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±17

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 7.01Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 24.69Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11246Tiger Byte

Provisional

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 29.27Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7531, 2549, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7531, 2549, 4065

Auto

20.4 11%

Teleop

107.7 58%

Endgame

56.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2290, 3055, 11246

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2290, 3055, 11246

Auto

14.8 24%

Teleop

24.5 40%

Endgame

21.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score192.2pts

Blue projected score61pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.3
Score range: 30–223
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.7Season APEX228.8

20.4Auto14.8

107.7Teleop24.5

56.5Endgame21.3

38Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	15
teleop	107	35
endgame	56	15
foul	5	0
total	169	65

Result

Final score

169 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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