Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.99 – 126.82

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432 ±14.1

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 17.93Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 116.17Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 38.89Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.2 ±14.1

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 79.15Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 48.21Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -0.54Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7850, 4143, 5914

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7850, 4143, 5914

Auto

30.2 19%

Teleop

75.1 47%

Endgame

53.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 3061, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7858, 3061, 2531

Auto

29.8 22%

Teleop

72.7 53%

Endgame

34.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173pts

Blue projected score126.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.2
Score range: 100–200
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 151.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432Season APEX376.2

30.2Auto29.8

75.1Teleop72.7

53.9Endgame34.6

61Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	23
teleop	81	60
endgame	45	30
foul	0	0
total	139	113

Result

Final score

139 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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