Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.5 – 126.7

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.4 ±13.5

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 3.21Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 35.46Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 120.83Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.6 ±12.8

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 19.76Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 82.24Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 24.7Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5576, 525, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5576, 525, 111

Auto

38.3 26%

Teleop

101.5 70%

Endgame

6.0 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2508, 4174, 2549

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2508, 4174, 2549

Auto

13.0 10%

Teleop

75.7 60%

Endgame

37.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.5pts

Blue projected score126.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.8
Score range: 100–187
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.4Season APEX435.6

38.3Auto13

101.5Teleop75.7

6Endgame37

76Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	44
teleop	3	92
endgame	24	82
foul	0	0
total	48	218

Result

Final score

48 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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