Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.63 – 125.53

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416 ±12.4

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 48.21Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 51.28Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 85.14Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.1 ±13.5

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 106.97Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 22.95Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -4.39Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4859, 9082, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4859, 9082, 4065

Auto

20.4 12%

Teleop

103.4 63%

Endgame

40.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3928, 2977, 6420

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 2977, 6420

Auto

19.5 15%

Teleop

42.9 33%

Endgame

69.2 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score184.6pts

Blue projected score125.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 100–211
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 146.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416Season APEX431.1

20.4Auto19.5

103.4Teleop42.9

40.9Endgame69.2

155Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	39
teleop	96	146
endgame	66	36
foul	0	5
total	183	226

Result

Final score

183 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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