Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147 – 139.48

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±16.5

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 3.72Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 37.97Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 105.31Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.3 ±13.5

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 54.55Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 21.03Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 63.9Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2358, 5339, 6419

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 5339, 6419

Auto

38.4 25%

Teleop

85.4 56%

Endgame

29.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 5822, 5847

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7858, 5822, 5847

Auto

26.1 20%

Teleop

66.6 51%

Endgame

37.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 113–173
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.3Season APEX419.3

38.4Auto26.1

85.4Teleop66.6

29.4Endgame37.9

64Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	55
teleop	80	141
endgame	40	58
foul	10	20
total	157	274

Result

Final score

157 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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