Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.43 – 197.68

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.6 ±16.5

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 52.95Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 38.97Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 10.51Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±12.4

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 81.97Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 59.57Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 56.14Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3090, 3206, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3090, 3206, 2290

Auto

16.7 17%

Teleop

59.5 59%

Endgame

24.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2220, 5914, 3061

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2220, 5914, 3061

Auto

37.8 20%

Teleop

109.2 58%

Endgame

41.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score197.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.2
Score range: 76–224
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.6Season APEX445.7

16.7Auto37.8

59.5Teleop109.2

24.7Endgame41.1

71Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	31
teleop	12	67
endgame	17	30
foul	10	5
total	49	133

Result

Final score

49 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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