Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.11 – 129.5

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539.5 ±12.4

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 7.52Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 133.6Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 4.99Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.6 ±13.3

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 40.58Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 34.55Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 54.37Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2531, 111, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2531, 111, 3284

Auto

39.4 34%

Teleop

72.5 62%

Endgame

4.3 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2987, 167, 525

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 167, 525

Auto

25.3 19%

Teleop

71.4 54%

Endgame

35.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.1pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.6
Score range: 103–173
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539.5Season APEX434.6

39.4Auto25.3

72.5Teleop71.4

4.3Endgame35.3

134Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	29
teleop	20	53
endgame	28	4
foul	0	0
total	74	86

Result

Final score

74 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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