Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.61 – 220.81

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 9.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.3 ±14.5

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 3.56Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 7.04Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 38.01Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.7 ±12.4

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 99.38Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 55.39Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 66.04Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2358, 6420, 967

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 6420, 967

Auto

20.7 41%

Teleop

25.4 51%

Endgame

3.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4174, 7531, 5847

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4174, 7531, 5847

Auto

33.9 15%

Teleop

113.1 49%

Endgame

81.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.6pts

Blue projected score220.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.2
Score range: 22–248
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 150.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.3Season APEX577.7

20.7Auto33.9

25.4Teleop113.1

3.8Endgame81.5

0Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	34
teleop	9	131
endgame	7	58
foul	0	0
total	31	223

Result

Final score

31 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 9.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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