Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.47 – 42.78

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 101.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.8 ±13.5

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 81.85Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 75.47Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 23.15Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.2 ±13.9

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 0.48Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 13.28Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 29.02Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6419, 4646, 4859

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6419, 4646, 4859

Auto

36.4 20%

Teleop

91.7 50%

Endgame

55.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3055, 112, 2977

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3055, 112, 2977

Auto

13.4 28%

Teleop

14.0 30%

Endgame

19.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.5pts

Blue projected score42.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.7
Score range: 16–207
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.8Season APEX297.2

36.4Auto13.4

91.7Teleop14

55.2Endgame19.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	15
teleop	217	39
endgame	37	54
foul	5	0
total	319	108

Result

Final score

319 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 101.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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