Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.15 – 105.97

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.5 ±13.3

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 35.39Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 67.79Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 39.97Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.9 ±13.7

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -1.51Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 107.07Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 0.41Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2987, 4663, 9082

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 4663, 9082

Auto

36.4 25%

Teleop

65.8 44%

Endgame

45.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6420, 695, 5576

/ 100 compat

Projected

106 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6420, 695, 5576

Auto

27.5 27%

Teleop

54.7 53%

Endgame

20.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.2pts

Blue projected score106pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.2
Score range: 75–174
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.5Season APEX437.9

36.4Auto27.5

65.8Teleop54.7

45.9Endgame20.4

64Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	26
teleop	61	41
endgame	61	16
foul	0	5
total	152	88

Result

Final score

152 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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