Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.34 – 81.37

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.2 ±11.7

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 38.34Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 68.21Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 31.79Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.4 ±11.9

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 49.08Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 55.04Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX -22.75Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2530, 2220, 2549

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2530, 2220, 2549

Auto

16.5 12%

Teleop

89.3 67%

Endgame

26.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5914, 4065, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5914, 4065, 3284

Auto

7.7 9%

Teleop

47.5 55%

Endgame

31.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score81.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57
Score range: 54–165
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 150.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.2Season APEX532.4

16.5Auto7.7

89.3Teleop47.5

26.6Endgame31.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	121	67
endgame	18	31
foul	0	60
total	154	173

Result

Final score

154 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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