Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.2 – 164.16

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 110.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.8 ±11.7

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 7.82Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 88.52Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 94.86Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±14.5

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 32.18Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 50.05Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 81.93Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 967, 111, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 967, 111, 4143

Auto

37.1 20%

Teleop

102.9 56%

Endgame

44.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5541, 3206, 2987

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5541, 3206, 2987

Auto

40.1 25%

Teleop

76.5 47%

Endgame

45.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.2pts

Blue projected score164.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27
Score range: 137–218
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.8Season APEX251.9

37.1Auto40.1

102.9Teleop76.5

44.2Endgame45.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	22
teleop	168	38
endgame	44	5
foul	45	0
total	313	65

Result

Final score

313 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 110.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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