Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.43 – 135.41

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.9 ±13.9

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 53.69Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 19.79Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 27.95Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.9 ±13

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 30.82Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 65.89Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 38.7Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7531, 2290, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7531, 2290, 167

Auto

11.0 11%

Teleop

62.1 63%

Endgame

25.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 695, 525

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7858, 695, 525

Auto

21.5 16%

Teleop

70.6 54%

Endgame

38.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.4pts

Blue projected score135.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34
Score range: 75–161
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.9Season APEX458.9

11Auto21.5

62.1Teleop70.6

25.4Endgame38.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	35
teleop	57	140
endgame	38	53
foul	10	0
total	123	228

Result

Final score

123 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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