Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.31 – 142.69

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.6 ±12.4

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 18.22Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 59.44Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 80.65Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.7 ±17

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 41.04Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 88.68Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 12.97Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7850, 3928, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7850, 3928, 4174

Auto

22.8 14%

Teleop

82.2 52%

Endgame

52.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4663, 3090, 5576

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4663, 3090, 5576

Auto

25.7 18%

Teleop

69.3 50%

Endgame

44.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.3pts

Blue projected score142.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.6
Score range: 117–184
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.6Season APEX204.7

22.8Auto25.7

82.2Teleop69.3

52.7Endgame44.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	22
teleop	130	43
endgame	81	19
foul	0	0
total	254	84

Result

Final score

254 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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