Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.79 – 128.72

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 91 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±11.9

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 23.49Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 48.01Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 60.29Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±14.5

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 33.03Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 35.4Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 60.29Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 5914, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 5914, 4646

Auto

24.2 19%

Teleop

70.9 55%

Endgame

33.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2358, 4859, 2508

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 4859, 2508

Auto

30.7 25%

Teleop

62.5 51%

Endgame

29.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.8pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 104–157
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.5Season APEX258

24.2Auto30.7

70.9Teleop62.5

33Endgame29.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	27
teleop	136	18
endgame	71	22
foul	0	5
total	257	72

Result

Final score

257 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 91 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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