Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
95.84 – 103.75
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
148 – 175
Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.5 ±13
Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 5.28Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 41.43Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 49.13Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 23.43Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 56.32Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 24Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7850, 2977, 4065
52
/ 100 compatProjected
95.8 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 7850, 2977, 4065
Auto
8.2 9%
Teleop
49.0 53%
Endgame
34.9 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 167, 4174, 5822
62
/ 100 compatProjected
103.8 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 167, 4174, 5822
Auto
24.4 24%
Teleop
51.9 51%
Endgame
26.0 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score95.8pts
Blue projected score103.8pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -7.9
- Score range
- 71–129
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
445.5Season APEX584.1
8.2Auto24.4
49Teleop51.9
34.9Endgame26
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 32 |
| teleop | 68 | 101 |
| endgame | 67 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 148 | 175 |
Result
Final score
148 – 175
Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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