Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.37 – 87.57

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.4 ±12.2

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 55.18Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 41.04Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 90.15Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.2 ±14.5

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 47.38Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 8.42Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 31.77Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2530, 112, 6419

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2530, 112, 6419

Auto

31.0 17%

Teleop

109.1 61%

Endgame

39.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 967, 2531, 3206

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 967, 2531, 3206

Auto

10.1 12%

Teleop

52.4 63%

Endgame

20.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.4pts

Blue projected score87.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.8
Score range: 57–217
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 171.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.4Season APEX269.2

31Auto10.1

109.1Teleop52.4

39.9Endgame20.7

50Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	11
teleop	75	45
endgame	22	18
foul	5	0
total	136	74

Result

Final score

136 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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