Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.29 – 308.84

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.4 ±11

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 133.15Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 126.74Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 40.4Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±11.9

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 129.62Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 108.94Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 70.28Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 5847, 112

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 5847, 112

Auto

61.3 21%

Teleop

147.2 51%

Endgame

81.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3928, 695, 7858

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 695, 7858

Auto

52.7 18%

Teleop

169.6 57%

Endgame

77.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score300.3pts

Blue projected score308.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.5
Score range: 269–340
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 169.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.4Season APEX616.7

61.3Auto52.7

147.2Teleop169.6

81.1Endgame77.5

54Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	32
teleop	151	131
endgame	100	69
foul	5	15
total	320	247

Result

Final score

320 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 pts

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