Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

298.33 – 312.7

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 275

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.4 ±11

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 132.6Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 125.91Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 39.82Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±11.9

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 130.89Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 110.19Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 71.62Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 5847, 112

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 5847, 112

Auto

61.8 21%

Teleop

147.6 51%

Endgame

79.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3928, 695, 7858

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 695, 7858

Auto

52.9 17%

Teleop

174.7 57%

Endgame

79.1 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score298.3pts

Blue projected score312.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.4
Score range: 268–343
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 168.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.4Season APEX616.7

61.8Auto52.9

147.6Teleop174.7

79.6Endgame79.1

52Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	51
teleop	144	125
endgame	91	64
foul	20	35
total	313	275

Result

Final score

313 – 275

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 pts

Match videos

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