Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.96 – 171.95

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±13.9

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 27.55Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 120.24Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 65.17Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±13.9

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 17.62Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 76.31Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 78.02Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2500, 3130, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 3130, 10479

Auto

35.2 17%

Teleop

126.0 59%

Endgame

51.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5464, 4198, 2549

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5464, 4198, 2549

Auto

32.7 19%

Teleop

100.8 59%

Endgame

37.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score213pts

Blue projected score172pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41
Score range: 145–240
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.3Season APEX283

35.2Auto32.7

126Teleop100.8

51.9Endgame37.5

49Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	30
teleop	124	76
endgame	33	0
foul	15	0
total	227	106

Result

Final score

227 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Match videos

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