Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.91 – 271.96

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 281

Prediction missed · off by 71 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±12.2

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 54.06Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 142.39Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 131.46Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.6 ±13.1

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 54.54Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 132.51Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 84.91Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3883, 3293, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 3293, 2472

Auto

70.0 22%

Teleop

164.3 51%

Endgame

88.1 27%

Strengths

· 3293 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3891, 3100, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

272 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3891, 3100, 6147

Auto

29.9 11%

Teleop

165.3 63%

Endgame

68.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score327.9pts

Blue projected score272pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56
Score range: 245–355
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.6Season APEX454.6

70Auto29.9

164.3Teleop165.3

88.1Endgame68.6

30Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	26
teleop	128	121
endgame	14	124
foul	0	10
total	195	281

Result

Final score

195 – 281

Prediction missed · off by 71 pts

Match videos

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