Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.77 – 210.05

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.6 ±11.7

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 16.4Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 171.35Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 166.02Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±13.9

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 27.14Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 119.48Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 63.43Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 4655, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 4655, 2052

Auto

64.1 18%

Teleop

208.3 59%

Endgame

79.3 23%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2500, 3130, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 3130, 10479

Auto

36.6 17%

Teleop

124.4 59%

Endgame

49.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score353.8pts

Blue projected score210.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.7
Score range: 183–381
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.6Season APEX282.3

64.1Auto36.6

208.3Teleop124.4

79.3Endgame49.2

38Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	29
teleop	238	130
endgame	88	62
foul	5	0
total	406	221

Result

Final score

406 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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