Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.8 – 177.09

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±15.8

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 44.77Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 56.87Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 71.16Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±13.9

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 20.91Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 77.74Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 78.44Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3206, 2175, 2502

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 2175, 2502

Auto

25.4 15%

Teleop

97.3 56%

Endgame

49.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5464, 4198, 2549

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5464, 4198, 2549

Auto

32.6 19%

Teleop

107.8 61%

Endgame

35.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.8pts

Blue projected score177.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.3
Score range: 146–204
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX283

25.4Auto32.6

97.3Teleop107.8

49.9Endgame35.4

10Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	33
teleop	52	71
endgame	30	43
foul	0	0
total	105	147

Result

Final score

105 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Match videos

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