Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.89 – 201.37

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.1 ±12.8

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 46.38Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 49.62Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 36.89Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.1 ±15.8

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 35.02Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 98Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 68.35Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2129, 10490, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2129, 10490, 3630

Auto

33.8 26%

Teleop

61.8 47%

Endgame

35.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3042, 8234, 2264

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3042, 8234, 2264

Auto

49.9 25%

Teleop

96.3 48%

Endgame

56.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.9pts

Blue projected score201.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.5
Score range: 106–228
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 149.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.1Season APEX288.1

33.8Auto49.9

61.8Teleop96.3

35.5Endgame56.3

19Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	40
teleop	28	81
endgame	3	26
foul	0	0
total	69	147

Result

Final score

69 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Match videos

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