Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.65 – 186.86

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±12.2

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 58.47Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 144.07Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 134.11Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±15.8

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 49.1Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 61.53Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 76.23Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3883, 3293, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 3293, 2472

Auto

68.7 21%

Teleop

175.3 52%

Endgame

90.9 27%

Strengths

· 3293 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3206, 2175, 2502

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 2175, 2502

Auto

24.1 13%

Teleop

108.9 58%

Endgame

53.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score336.7pts

Blue projected score186.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.8
Score range: 160–364
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.6Season APEX227.8

68.7Auto24.1

175.3Teleop108.9

90.9Endgame53.7

28Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	28
teleop	113	49
endgame	75	35
foul	20	0
total	282	112

Result

Final score

282 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Match videos

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