Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

205.89 – 213.1

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±13.9

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 25.67Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 118.75Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 61.47Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.1 ±15.8

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 38.88Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 101.3Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 72.92Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2500, 3130, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 3130, 10479

Auto

37.6 18%

Teleop

124.8 61%

Endgame

43.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3042, 8234, 2264

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3042, 8234, 2264

Auto

48.5 23%

Teleop

103.9 48%

Endgame

62.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.9pts

Blue projected score213.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: 179–240
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.3Season APEX288.1

37.6Auto48.5

124.8Teleop103.9

43.3Endgame62.3

54Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	54
teleop	106	69
endgame	60	38
foul	0	0
total	199	161

Result

Final score

199 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 pts

Match videos

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