Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.71 – 133.67

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.6 ±11.7

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 28.61Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 181.4Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 175.7Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.1 ±12.8

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 45.11Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 51.86Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 36.7Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 4655, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 4655, 2052

Auto

70.9 19%

Teleop

227.1 59%

Endgame

84.8 22%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2129, 10490, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2129, 10490, 3630

Auto

32.1 25%

Teleop

64.8 50%

Endgame

33.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score385.7pts

Blue projected score133.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 252
Score range: 107–413
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.6Season APEX314.1

70.9Auto32.1

227.1Teleop64.8

84.8Endgame33.8

32Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	39
teleop	133	40
endgame	57	36
foul	0	0
total	233	115

Result

Final score

233 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 pts

Match videos

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