Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
269.87 – 298.17
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
240 – 276
Prediction correct · off by 26 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.6 ±13.1
Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 53.75Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 131.06Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 85.06Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 48.56Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 130.65Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 118.96Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3891, 3100, 6147
79
/ 100 compatProjected
269.9 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 3891, 3100, 6147
Auto
31.9 12%
Teleop
157.1 60%
Endgame
73.7 28%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2526, 3293, 2472
82
/ 100 compatProjected
298.2 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 2526, 3293, 2472
Auto
51.7 18%
Teleop
157.5 54%
Endgame
82.4 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.76
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score269.9pts
Blue projected score298.2pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample188alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -28.3
- Score range
- 242–326
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
454.6Season APEX443.5
31.9Auto51.7
157.1Teleop157.5
73.7Endgame82.4
9Consistency30
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 59 | 48 |
| teleop | 75 | 110 |
| endgame | 56 | 103 |
| foul | 50 | 15 |
| total | 240 | 276 |
Result
Final score
240 – 276
Prediction correct · off by 26 pts
Match videos
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