Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.93 – 216.35

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.5 ±12.2

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 45.72Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 128.15Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 117.06Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±13.9

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 28.03Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 120.77Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 67.55Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2526, 3293, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2526, 3293, 2472

Auto

52.2 18%

Teleop

158.8 56%

Endgame

72.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2500, 3130, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 3130, 10479

Auto

38.5 18%

Teleop

126.3 59%

Endgame

49.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score290.9pts

Blue projected score216.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.6
Score range: 188–319
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 153.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.5Season APEX282.3

52.2Auto38.5

158.8Teleop126.3

72Endgame49.2

35Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	58
teleop	149	62
endgame	133	31
foul	0	0
total	332	151

Result

Final score

332 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Match videos

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