Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.36 – 275.45

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.6 ±11.7

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 21.24Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 175.6Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 169.52Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.6 ±13.1

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 54.97Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 132.36Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 88.12Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 4655, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 4655, 2052

Auto

66.5 18%

Teleop

215.2 59%

Endgame

81.9 23%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3891, 3100, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3891, 3100, 6147

Auto

29.4 11%

Teleop

157.4 59%

Endgame

80.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score366.4pts

Blue projected score275.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.9
Score range: 248–393
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 648 vs event baseline 152.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.6Season APEX454.6

66.5Auto29.4

215.2Teleop157.4

81.9Endgame80.1

18Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	46
teleop	233	154
endgame	91	39
foul	10	0
total	409	239

Result

Final score

409 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Match videos

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