Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.42 – 150.7

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±17

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 47.8Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 0.18Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 0.44Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±16.5

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 40.29Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 52.64Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 57.77Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3206, 4166, 8787

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 4166, 8787

Auto

16.0 33%

Teleop

16.1 33%

Endgame

16.8 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2129, 5434, 10479

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2129, 5434, 10479

Auto

34.6 24%

Teleop

71.5 50%

Endgame

38.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.4pts

Blue projected score150.7pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.3
Score range: 21–178
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.9Season APEX291.5

16Auto34.6

16.1Teleop71.5

16.8Endgame38.3

32Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	51
teleop	21	123
endgame	23	26
foul	0	0
total	65	200

Result

Final score

65 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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