Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.51 – 189.88

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.3 ±20.2

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 12.61Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -6.19Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 56.09Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±13.9

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 67.66Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 45.29Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 76.93Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6909, 3291, 2175

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6909, 3291, 2175

Auto

13.9 26%

Teleop

40.5 75%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2502, 10490, 4198

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2502, 10490, 4198

Auto

24.8 13%

Teleop

117.7 62%

Endgame

46.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score189.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.4
Score range: 36–217
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.3Season APEX283.4

13.9Auto24.8

40.5Teleop117.7

-0.3Endgame46.6

32Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	32
teleop	73	163
endgame	51	43
foul	0	15
total	140	253

Result

Final score

140 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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