Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.46 – 217.25

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152 ±20.8

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 21.63Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 15.3Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX 0.53Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.7 ±13.5

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX -0.3Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 36.86Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 180.69Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5271, 2225, 2513

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5271, 2225, 2513

Auto

13.8 36%

Teleop

18.7 48%

Endgame

6.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4693, 5464, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4693, 5464, 2052

Auto

44.5 20%

Teleop

130.2 59%

Endgame

46.6 21%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.5pts

Blue projected score217.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179.8
Score range: 10–244
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152Season APEX384.7

13.8Auto44.5

18.7Teleop130.2

6.1Endgame46.6

65Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	59
teleop	2	68
endgame	2	49
foul	0	0
total	23	176

Result

Final score

23 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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