Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.2 – 249.33

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±18.8

2606Irish Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -6.51Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 84.15Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 7.56Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.7 ±12.8

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.37Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 39.83Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 177.13Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2606, 2549, 9157

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2606, 2549, 9157

Auto

20.1 23%

Teleop

48.0 55%

Endgame

18.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3042, 2526, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3042, 2526, 4655

Auto

44.2 18%

Teleop

147.8 60%

Endgame

56.2 23%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score249.3pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.1
Score range: 58–276
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.1Season APEX400.7

20.1Auto44.2

48Teleop147.8

18.8Endgame56.2

58Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	50
teleop	64	177
endgame	29	78
foul	0	0
total	122	305

Result

Final score

122 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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