Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.01 – 188.31

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.4 ±15.6

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 27.08Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 33.95Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7273ZooM 7273

Provisional

Season APEX 91Event APEX 17.98Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.1 ±14.7

2498BearBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 47.09Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 1.38Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 139.84Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 3630, 7273

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 3630, 7273

Auto

21.7 28%

Teleop

40.4 52%

Endgame

15.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2498, 2169, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2498, 2169, 3100

Auto

19.9 10%

Teleop

113.7 60%

Endgame

56.6 30%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79pts

Blue projected score188.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.3
Score range: 52–215
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.4Season APEX423.1

21.7Auto19.9

40.4Teleop113.7

15.9Endgame56.6

17Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	49
teleop	30	62
endgame	43	68
foul	0	0
total	94	179

Result

Final score

94 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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