Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.84 – 127.67

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±17.5

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 61.86Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 39.7Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2513T.E.R.T.O.L.A.

Provisional

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX 0.28Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.3 ±16.5

2225Rebel Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 13.14Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX -1.25Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 115.78Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3891, 2129, 2513

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3891, 2129, 2513

Auto

29.1 31%

Teleop

30.3 32%

Endgame

35.1 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2225, 6217, 3130

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2225, 6217, 3130

Auto

24.5 19%

Teleop

76.3 60%

Endgame

27.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.8pts

Blue projected score127.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.8
Score range: 75–155
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205Season APEX238.3

29.1Auto24.5

30.3Teleop76.3

35.1Endgame27.4

66Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	24
teleop	56	98
endgame	24	48
foul	0	0
total	114	170

Result

Final score

114 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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