Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.93 – 67.33

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.4 ±14.9

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 67.46Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2175The Fighting Calculators

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 53.6Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 138.87Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±18.8

10490Ely Robotics

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 44.91Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8787Mavericks

Provisional

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 1.67Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5271Open Circuits

Provisional

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 20.75Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2502, 2175, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2502, 2175, 2472

Auto

32.2 13%

Teleop

142.9 56%

Endgame

78.2 31%

Strengths

· 2472 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10490, 8787, 5271

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10490, 8787, 5271

Auto

13.9 22%

Teleop

32.6 51%

Endgame

17.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score259.9pts

Blue projected score67.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.6
Score range: 40–287
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 147.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.4Season APEX186.1

32.2Auto13.9

142.9Teleop32.6

78.2Endgame17.5

20Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	24
teleop	169	41
endgame	69	20
foul	0	0
total	279	85

Result

Final score

279 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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