Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.29 – 81.29

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.2 ±18

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX -Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX -Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX -Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.8 ±14.5

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX -Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3691, 3891, 6909

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3691, 3891, 6909

Auto

24.4 30%

Teleop

40.6 50%

Endgame

16.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2500, 10950, 4166

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 10950, 4166

Auto

24.4 30%

Teleop

40.6 50%

Endgame

16.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.3pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 52–110
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.2Season APEX279.8

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	37	14
endgame	9	11
foul	45	0
total	121	39

Result

Final score

121 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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