Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.26 – 62.41

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±18.1

2264Trojan Robotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 76.68Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10479Powerhouse

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 64.09Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -3.51Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177 ±16.5

6909SAKURA Tempesta

Provisional

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 6.62Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 24.02Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5464Bluejacket Robotics

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 31.77Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2264, 10479, 3291

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2264, 10479, 3291

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

77.5 58%

Endgame

32.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6909, 2500, 5464

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6909, 2500, 5464

Auto

13.9 25%

Teleop

24.3 43%

Endgame

18.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.3pts

Blue projected score62.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.9
Score range: 35–164
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299Season APEX177

22.5Auto13.9

77.5Teleop24.3

32.6Endgame18.2

2Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	19
teleop	32	59
endgame	0	30
foul	0	0
total	97	108

Result

Final score

97 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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