Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.28 – 109.5

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±14.5

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 98.13Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4166Robostang

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -0.36Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3042Cobalt Catalysts

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 28.51Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.4 ±17

3751Tower View Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31Event APEX -2.81Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8878ArrowBot

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 55.57Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 56.74Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8234, 4166, 3042

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8234, 4166, 3042

Auto

27.9 22%

Teleop

64.0 50%

Endgame

36.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3751, 8878, 3206

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3751, 8878, 3206

Auto

25.5 24%

Teleop

44.1 42%

Endgame

35.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.3pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.8
Score range: 83–153
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.5Season APEX185.4

27.9Auto25.5

64Teleop44.1

36.2Endgame35

5Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	19
teleop	81	12
endgame	25	19
foul	0	0
total	153	50

Result

Final score

153 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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