Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.23 – 268.41

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.3 ±15.6

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 5.06Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5996R.U.R.

Provisional

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 21.62Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 43.55Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416 ±14.7

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 172.65Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 89.71Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2518Spartan Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 22.4Event APEX 6.05Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 5996, 2526

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 5996, 2526

Auto

16.0 23%

Teleop

43.7 62%

Endgame

10.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 6147, 2518

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4655, 6147, 2518

Auto

35.6 13%

Teleop

164.3 62%

Endgame

65.0 25%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.2pts

Blue projected score268.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -198.2
Score range: 43–295
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.3Season APEX416

16Auto35.6

43.7Teleop164.3

10.7Endgame65

46Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	49
teleop	10	171
endgame	24	74
foul	0	0
total	46	294

Result

Final score

46 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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