Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.1 – 36.28

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±11.7

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 30.99Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 134.15Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 4.96Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149 ±17.5

9157Iconic Panthers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 9.86Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX 2.31Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3691RoboRaiders

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 24.11Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3630, 3100, 2574

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 3100, 2574

Auto

27.4 16%

Teleop

105.9 61%

Endgame

41.2 24%

Strengths

· 3100 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9157, 4693, 3691

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9157, 4693, 3691

Auto

10.2 31%

Teleop

20.8 64%

Endgame

1.4 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.1pts

Blue projected score36.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.8
Score range: 9–197
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 148.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423Season APEX149

27.4Auto10.2

105.9Teleop20.8

41.2Endgame1.4

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	12
teleop	153	1
endgame	16	0
foul	0	0
total	216	13

Result

Final score

216 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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