Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.04 – 188.64

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.9 ±15.6

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX -7.88Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 177Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7273ZooM 7273

Provisional

Season APEX 91Event APEX 15.92Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±17.5

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 77.94Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5434Falcon Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 50.85Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3891Rodeo Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 59.85Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6217, 2052, 7273

/ 100 compat

Projected

185 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6217, 2052, 7273

Auto

43.1 23%

Teleop

124.5 66%

Endgame

19.7 11%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4198, 5434, 3891

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4198, 5434, 3891

Auto

28.2 16%

Teleop

98.4 56%

Endgame

48.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score185pts

Blue projected score188.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.6
Score range: 158–216
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.9Season APEX283.8

43.1Auto28.2

124.5Teleop98.4

19.7Endgame48.2

47Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	38
teleop	107	139
endgame	102	26
foul	0	0
total	236	203

Result

Final score

236 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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